Sunday, 26 September 2010

Which Milipede did Wales vote for?

HT to Matt Raven for directing me to this extremely useful page which shows how each Constituency Labour Party voted in the Labour Party leadership battle. Now personally I wasn't particularly bothered which one of the Milipede brothers won but I suppose for ambitious Welsh MP's it was imperative that they backed the winning horse. Of the 24 MP's whose support was known, 11 supported Ed Miliband including candidates for the shadow cabinet, Peter Hain, Ian Lucas and Wayne David. There was strong support for Ed Miliband from amongst Labour AM's with 15 out of 26 supporting him. Ed Miliband also had the support of the Kinnocks and Derek Vaughan, Wales's lone Labour MEP.

With such a strong showing amongst the movers and shakers and the largest Unions, one would have expected the CLP's to fall behind Ed, but it wasn't to be. Out of the 40 CLP's only 8 CLP's suppported Ed with 32 CLP's supporting David. Despite being candidates for the shadow cabinet, Ian Lucas and Wayne David failed to persuade their respective CLP's to follow their lead and support Ed Miliband. The CLP's that supported Ed, were, Arfon, Bridgend, Cardiff Central, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Neath, Vale of Glamorgan, Ynys Mon and Gower.

In addition to the voting data this table also contains valuable information on Labour Party membership figures. We must assume that the column Ballot Papers Distributed relate to the card carrying members at some date in the past. If that is the case Labour party membership in Wales standing at 11,163 is indeed good news to opposition parties.

The membership data for the 40 Welsh CLP's is reproduced below:

Aberavon - 367.
Aberconwy - 168.
Alyn & Deeside - 305
Arfon - 154.
Blaenau Gwent - 310.
Brecon & Radnor - 220.
Bridgend - 288.
Caerffili - 315.
Cardiff Central - 324.
Cardiff North - 408.
Cardiff South - 375.
Cardiff West - 454.
Carmarthen East - 203.
Carmarthen West - 207.
Ceredigion - 146.
Clwyd South - 252.
Clwyd West - 161.
Cynon - 309.
Delyn - 269.
Dwyfor Meirion - 89.
Gower - 383.
Islwyn - 275.
Llanelli - 276.
Merthyr - 317.
Monmouth - 329.
Montgomery - 89.
Neath - 391.
Newport E - 250.
Newport W - 346.
Ogmore - 359.
Pontypridd - 333.
Preseli - 188.
Rhondda - 404.
Swansea E - 212.
Swansea W - 325.
Torfaen - 359.
Vale of Clwyd - 261.
Vale of Glamorgan - 373.
Wrecsam - 209.
Ynys Mon - 160.

1 comment:

MH said...

There's a spreadsheet of the results here.

I've highlighted/extracted the Welsh data and my spreadsheet is here.

The total membership of the Labour Party is in their annual accounts to the Electoral commission (page 14 of this document, and has been dropping like a stone for the last ten years ... from 272,000 at the end of 2001 to 156,205 at the end of 2009. But this is the first hard data I've found for Welsh membership (though that may just be ignorance of where to find it on my part).

If what Harriet Harman said about Labour's membership increasing by 32,000 since the May election is true, it shows that membership must have slumped to about 145,000 when the election was being fought. However 32,000 is a remarkable increase in itself, and this shows that the leadership campaign has been used as a recruiting drive ... and, in the circumstances, quite a successful one. I remember reading that receptions/parties were being hosted with the dual aim of getting people to join the party and at the same time trying to get them to vote for the host's preferred leadership candidate. But 177,559 is still a very long way short of the 272,000 Labour had in 2001.