Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Falling off a cliff - Lib Dems fighting for fifth place with the Communists

As if Cablegate (c) wasn't bad enough, Welsh Poll Watch has this bit of bad news for the Lib Dems. The interesting bit from a local perspective is that:

"In the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%)."

If these figures are replicated in May 2011, then there's a real possibility of the first Green AM in Wales.

Here's the full report:

Yougov December Poll
Lib Dems must be panicking now with the latest yougov figures for them falling off a cliff.

Constituency December poll (change since November)

Lab 44% (nc)

PC 21% (nc)

Con 23% (+2)

Lib 6% (-3)

Other 6% (nc)

Regional December poll (change since November)

Lab 42% (+1)

PC 21% (+1)

Con 22% (+2)

Lib 5% (-4)

UKIP 5% (+1)

Put into our predictor this has Labour 30, Plaid 13, Tory 15, Lib Dems 2. Unfortunately the predictor does not treat UKIP as an equal party to the others so this will need editing. Also their are problems with using a uniform swing when a parties vote is so varied across a region. On these ratings the Libs will struggle to hold more than one seat (either Brecon and radnor or the M&W list seat).

To put into context how awful things are for Kirsty Williams only in 1 of the 5 regions (Mid and West) did the Lib Dems come 4th!

In South Wales Central they were 5th behind the greens. In the South East, north and south West they were 5th behind UKIP. To make matters even worse in the North they were level pegging with the Communists for 5th place (both on 3%).

All in all they are in an incredibly poor position. I have always thought that 6 seats was the floor that it was impossible for the Libs to drop beneath. This poll completely blows that theory away.

Of course this is only one poll but if this is anywhere close to reality the Lib Dems will need to run a truly amazing campaign next year.

They also asked their usual referendum question. The result is

Yes: 46% (-2)

No 25% (-5)

Don't know / won't vote 29% (+7)

This is still good news for the yes campaign.


Derrick said...

Any idea where the tories will make gains?

Plaid Whitegate said...

Any additional seats the Tories gain will more than likely be offset by losses at regional level, e.g. if they win Montgomery then Nick Bourne goes from the regional list.